A forecast for the 21st Century
ONE MINUTE BRIEF
This speculative book (253 pages) by George Friedman published in 2009 is about identifying the major events that might take place in 21st century in the broadest way. US-Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia, European influence as a major power would decline, China’s role as a world power would diminish. Turkey, Japan, Poland, Mexico will become important countries on the geopolitical stage; new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live and fight wars. United States and its Allies will come out successfully from World War III around 2050, not accepting the hegemony of Turkey & Japan on Eurasia. United States of America (USA) will be the dominant power of the century because of its overwhelming economic and military power.
Read more: THE NEXT 100 YEARSSUMMARY (around 1500 words or 15 minutes)
1) Cold War with Russia in the 2010-20s
2) China’s Slowdown In the 2020-30s
3) The Three Emerging Powers in Eurasia in the 2020-30s
4) Rise of Global Tensions as a prelude to WW III in the 2040s
5) World War III around Year 2050
6) Technological & Economic Growth in the 2060s
7) Technology in the 21st Century
8) Tension between USA & Mexico in the 2070-2080s
9) USA continuing its dominance in the 21st Century
BRIEF OPINION/CRITIQUE (300 Words)
SUMMARY (around 1500 words or 15 minutes)
This speculative book (253 pages) by George Friedman published in 2009 is about identifying the major tendencies and changes in terms of geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultural, military of 20th century and defining the major events that might take place in 21st century in the broadest way. If anyone had said in 1950 that the world’s greatest economic powerhouses a half century later would be Japan and Germany ranked at second and third or during Civil War in 1861-65 that USA would be a world power by 1900, that person would have been laughed at and ridiculed. The Author admits, there are endless unknowns and no forecast of a century can be either complete or utterly correct, however, he is endeavoring to transmit a sense of the future.
1) Cold War with Russia in the 2010-20s:
The conflict between the US and Islamic Fundamentalist will reduce and a second cold war with Russia would begin which is expected to be shorter. Russia’s strategic problem is that it is a large country with declining population (Around 145 Million in 2009 with projections of 90-125 Million in 2050) and poor infrastructure, hence it must protect its natural resources and huge exports revenues from the rest of the world by buffer zones/countries. With the buildup of military capabilities, Russia will endeavor to extend its sphere of influence into Central and Eastern Europe. Ukraine & Belarus are everything to Russia and its reabsorption into Russian sphere of influence would roughly return Russian borders with Europe between the two world wars.
2) China’s Slowdown In the 2020-30s:
China’s economic rise mainly dependent on Exportsespecially to USA which began in 1980s, completing its 40-50 year cycle, would be facing a slowdown similar to the one faced by Japan earlier. China grew extraordinarily through low cost exports with wafer thin margins at the expense of its financial and banking systems. The entire system was churning just to keep itself afloat. As such, internal stresses on the Chinese economy and society (massive economic disparity between 200 Million people of affluent Coastal Regions and 1.1 Billion people of poor Interior Regions with income of less than US $ 70 per month) would not encourage China to pursue foreign policy adventures.
3) The Three Emerging Powers in Eurasia in the 2020-30s:
Turkey, ranked seventeenth world economy in 2007 and growing steadily, enjoys one of the strongest geographic location of any Eurasian country having access to the Arab world, Iran, Europe, the former Soviet Union and Mediterranean. Russia historically saw Turkey as a power that was blocking its interests. Hence, Turks will be instrumental in USA’s anti-Russian strategy. Therefore, supported by USA initially, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and would become a regional power similar to its contours during Ottoman Empire. Israel would continue to be heavily supported by USA and would remain outside Turkey’s overwhelming influence on fragmented Arab World. While Pakistan is a Nuclear Power and the second largest Muslim state after Indonesia in terms of population, it is economically weak and internally divided. Hence, instability and geography (Afghanistan in the West, China & Russia to the North and India in the East), Pakistan is unlikely to emerge as a leading Muslim state.
Japan being the world’s 2nd largest economy, is vulnerable as it must import all of its raw material; hence exerting its influence in East Asia, Coastal China, Pacific Islands and Pacific Russia (rich in mineral resources) is the viable option for its economic sustainability in future. Japan will alter its foreign policy and would become more aggressive geopolitically and buildup its Military and Navy. India, internally divided and having failed to become a global economic power, will be a regional power of some importance being aligned to USA’s interests in Indian Ocean and Pacific.
Poland would seek an outside power (strong USA looking for least cost solution to contain Russia) to protect itself from Russians as Britain and France despite their guarantees in 1939 failed to do so from Russia & Germany. At a time of declining population in Germany, France, Russia, there will be a general redefinition of the European power structure. Poland and its Allies will be major power desiring to expand its influence into what was formerly European Russia and would also begin to compete with Turkey for influence in the important economic regions. The balance of power within Europe by 2040 will therefore shift to the East.
4) Rise of Global Tensions as a prelude to WW III in the 2040s:
USA will get uneasy and disenchanted with Turkey & Japan’s expansion of their military power and economic influence as it starts hurting its economic interests, though it will be initially allied with all three regional hegemons emerging simultaneously.
The most critical issue will be the future of Pacific Basin as Japan will be deeply concerned with its sea lanes of oil/gas imports from Strait of Hormus to Strait of Malacca & South China Sea. On a deeper level, USA will be alarmed by Japan’s sea & space based military systems such as hypersonic anti-ship missiles (~ 8000 mph) and satellite tracking stations. With Turkey dominating Mediterranean, North Africa, Egypt, Suez Canal & Saudi Peninsula, both countries would have convergence of interests in overseeing & maintaining sea lanes for each other. However, it will frighten the Poles, Indians, Israelis and USA which has been an unchallenged Master of all Oceans for last 100 years or so. As such, global tensions will start building up as a prelude to the War.
5) World War III around Year 2050:
A World War III will take place between USA/Polish Bloc/Uk/China/India and Turkey/Japan. Germany with its aging/declining population will not have the determination and power to challenge the Polish Bloc to prevent it from taking away Germany’s Central & Western Europe’s powers. Hence, Germany/France will enter the War in its late stages on the side of Turkey/Japan. The Turkish-Japanese Alliance would attempt to establish Turkey/Japan as fellow Superpower after initial strikes causing sizable damage to the military capabilities of the USA and its Allies. USA would refuse to accept Turkish and Japanese hegemony over Eurasia and would go for all-out War. As War progresses for 2-3 years, the initiative and advantage shifts to USA and its Allies rebuilding its capabilities, using new Technologies, long range hypersonic aircrafts and space based weapon systems. USA will ultimately win this limited War with precision guided weapons with minimum collateral damage of human lives.
6) Technological & Economic Growth in the 2060s:
USA will enjoy a post war boom (similar to WW II) wherein there will be an economic and technological golden age for at least 15 years. USA would have complete control and exclusive rights to militarize space while other nations would be able to use space for commercial purposes subject to US Inspections. As United States has historically profited from major wars based on its expenditures on research & development in weaponry, a range of new technologies will be available for commercial exploitation (such as internet coming out of Naval communication or Cellphones coming out of missile microchips after WW II) in this period.
7) Technology in the 21st Century:
When population does not grow (21st century issue of many developed countries), technology must compensate and for technology to work, energy costs must come down. Technology also brings in a shift from unskilled to skilled labor. USA, more than any other nation, will need robotic support for soldiers as a matter of national interest wherein its mass deployment will not be taking place until 2040s while its effects would start making waves in 2060s. With the shift to space based systems, Industrialized nations will produce energy at the same time as it fuels its industry. Collection of solar energy from space satellites beaming it down to Earth 24/7 would reduce dependence of hydrocarbons/fossil fuels, thereby reducing the strategic importance of oil/gas producing regions especially Middle East/Saudi Arabia. Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and space exploration will continue opening up new commercial avenues.
8) Tension between USA & Mexico in the 2070-2080s:
Tensions between USA and Mexico (economy ranked fifteenth in the world with a population of 110 Million) will rise due to huge immigration wherein many parts of USA, especially the South West States (occupied by USA in 1840s) will become predominantly Mexican in terms of population exhibiting itself in social and cultural patterns. Unlike other immigrant groups, porous borders and proximity to the homeland creates a very different dynamics. These demographic changes will be irreversible as these people will identify themselves as Mexicans rather than US Americans. By the 2070s, a northward extension of Mexico border about 200 miles (through vast areas of Mexican Cession-1848, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California) would have taken place in every sense but legal. Simultaneously, Mexico would also be experiencing population and economic growth (due to independence of oil exports despite having good reserves, cost effective exports to USA due to proximity advantage, huge remittances from legal and illegal immigrants in USA, organized crime and drug trade) directing itself to military expansion, as a result of which it may challenge USA for reverting the occupied regions in 1840s. Most of the world, wary of US dominance would hope for a Mexican victory though no other Nation would directly interfere. While USA would continue to rule the skies and oceans, Mexico will pose a challenge on the ground inside the borders of USA. Nevertheless, this USA-Mexican tensions and conflict would continue into 22nd century.
9) USA continuing its dominance in the 21st Century:
Like 20th Century, USA having global interests would remain the dominant power of the 21st century because of its overwhelming economic power (approximately 25% of world economy) and military power (having control on all Oceans, large Defense Industry & space programs for cyber warfare). However, it would continue to exercise its global power carelessly lacking the sense of historical perspective. The twenty first century will see both American indifference to the consequences of its actions and the world’s resistance and anger towards USA.
BRIEF OPINION/CRITIQUE (300 Words)
The book scrutinizes quite well the historical and geopolitical events of 20th century while it unravels some new perspectives for all those who are interested to know how the World would evolve and reshape itself in their lifetimes or their Children’s lifetimes. Some of the scenarios are hard to imagine now; as the Author puts it, ‘common sense is the one thing that will be certainly wrong’. The projections of 21st century can be useful to focus on different events in International Affairs as we go along. However, the book appears to be American (USA) biased where it comfortably assumes that USA would continue to be a single political entity for next 100 years without discussing in detail the political polarization, racial and ethnic fault lines except for USA-Mexican conflict whereas it devotes chapters on the fragmentation of China, Russia and Europe. The book casually mentions Brazil, an important country in South America (having a population of around 200 Million and GDP estimates of US$ 2 Trillion) while it also ignores the underdeveloped Continent of Africa (1.4 Billion as of 2021 or 18% of World Population) having rich natural Resources and the scenario of availability of alternative African markets for Japanese & Chinese exports to reduce their dependence on USA’s markets and its subsequent impact on World’s Economics & Politics in next 100 years. It also does not weigh in the initiative of ‘Belt & Road’ by China investing billions of dollars in infrastructure and industrialization of underdeveloped countries and its economic & trade cooperation with developed countries. All in all, it’s a very interesting read for all those would like to keep an eye on International Affairs and how it affects their country of birth or residence or nationalism.
BOOK OUTLINE
Chapter 1 : The Dawn of the American Age (16 pages)
Chapter 2 : Earthquake; The US-Jihadist War (19 pages)
Chapter 3 : Population, Computers, and Culture War (15 pages)
Chapter 4 : The New Fault Lines (23 pages)
Chapter 5 : China 2020; Paper Tiger (13 pages)
Chapter 6 : Russia 2020; Rematch (19 pages)
Chapter 7 : American Power and the Crisis of 2030 (16 pages)
Chapter 8 : A New World Emerges (17 pages)
Chapter 9 : The 2040s; Prelude to War (21 pages)
Chapter 10 : Preparing for War (19 pages)
Chapter 11 : World War; A Scenario (19 pages)
Chapter 12 : The 2060s; A Golden Decade (11 pages)
Chapter 13 : 2080 – The United States, Mexico, and the Struggle for the Global Heartland (26 pages)
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
George Friedman is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the World’s leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is also the author of four books, including most recently America’s Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. Born of Hungarian parents with an Australian wife, he lives in Austin/Texas, USA.
ABOUT THE BOOK
Title : The Next 100 Years
Author : George Friedman
Publisher : Anchor Books
First Edition : 2009
ISBN : 978-0-7679-2305-7
The book which was written 15 years ago has quite accurately predicted some of the events taking place now a days including risk of WW III. All the nine headings listed in the summary are very interesting and worth reading .Zawar’s comments in his critique section make sense but can be commented after reading the book. Appears to be interesting book.
Not sure what to say about the world view described by the author. It is, however, true that US would remain a dominant power in the 21st century given its overwhelming position in the political, military, economic and financial fields. Given USA’s openness to new ideas and encouragement of best talent from all over the world, it is likely (in my view) to have a technological and economic/financial edge over most of its competitors. However, there are other countries emulating this model to jumpstart and sustain the technology-driven development (China, India, Israel, Japan, Korea, and European countries). Whether there would be a World War III in a conventional sense, I am not too sure – perhaps there would be a global tension between competing blocks which Wray be resolved through techno-economic responses.
Surely, in addition to military & economic power, the creativity and attraction of best mind & talent through its immigration policy and educational system, USA has a clear edge over other countries in being a dominant country in the 21st century. However, things can go sour in few decades if ethnic fault lines are not tackled judiciously within USA and military adventurism elsewhere in the world go unabated.